John Maynard Keynes is a world famous economist. John Maynard Keynes and Lydia the great reformer of capitalism and ballet J. Keynes biography briefly
INTRODUCTION
Leading current of the first half and middle of the XX century. Keynesianism emerged. Its founder was the English economist Jean Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), who gained worldwide fame after the publication of his book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". Keynes and his followers (J. Hicks, E. Hansen, P. Samuelson, R. Harrod, E. Domar, J. Robinson, N. Kaldor, P. Sraffa, etc.) proclaimed the maintenance of effective demand and full employment.
KEYNSIA ́ Keynesian Economics (Keynesian Economics), a macroeconomic theory based on the idea of the need for state regulation of economic development. The essence of Keynes's teaching is that for the economy to flourish, everyone should spend as much money as possible. The state must stimulate aggregate demand even by increasing the budget deficit, debts and issuing fiat money. Although Keynes did not deal specifically with the problems of state and law, the program he developed had a direct impact on political practice and legislation. After the Second World War, many countries of Western Europe carried out reforms aimed at preventing crises in the economy, increasing the level of employment and consumer demand (the totality of such measures is called the "Keynesian revolution in the West" by neoliberals, contrasting it with the communist revolutions in Eastern Europe). The spread of Keynesian ideas peaked in the 1950s and 1960s. They were developed in the concepts of post-industrial society (J. Galbraith), the stages of economic growth (V. Rostow), the welfare state (G. Myrdal), etc. The object of the study is the Keynesian trend, the main stages of its development and the main content of the Keynesian revolution. The subject of the research is the theory of state regulation of the economy, as well as the monetary system in the Keynesian and post-Keynesian periods. The aim of the study is to study and analyze the Keynesian concept of economic development; economic doctrine of J.M. Keynes, who is directly considered the founder of macroeconomics as an independent scientific discipline. CHAPTER 1. J. M. KEYNS AND HIS THEORETICAL SYSTEM 1.1 J. M. Keynes as the founder of Keynesianism During the crisis of 1929 - 1933. in the countries of Western Europe and America there was a catastrophic overproduction of goods, chronic unemployment was at a high level. In England from 1921 to 1939 (for 19 years) the unemployment rate consistently exceeded 10%. In the period 1931 - 1933. it was 20%, and from 1932 to January 1933 it was 23%. Unemployment has become the most acute problem of the market economy. The neoclassical school could not answer the question of how to reduce unemployment, how to get out of the crisis. Neoclassical theory itself was in crisis. The crisis of the 1930s was not another cyclical crisis of overproduction, it was a crisis of the system itself, which could no longer function in the old way and needed a deep restructuring of the entire mechanism of its regulation, new processes required new ideas, a new theoretical generalization of the ongoing changes. John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946), the greatest economist of the 20th century, a student of A. Marshall, but not his follower, brought Western economic theory out of a deep crisis: Keynes went further and in a slightly different direction. First half of the 20th century represented by the formation of the economic system of J. Keynes. He was able to answer the questions, what is the cause of the crisis and what needs to be done so that it does not happen in the future. A peculiar understanding of the last longest and most severe economic crisis of 1929-1933 was reflected in the completely extraordinary provisions of that period in the book published by J. M. Keynes "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936). This work brought him extremely wide fame and recognition, since it was already in the 30s. served as a theoretical and methodological basis for economic stabilization programs at the government level in a number of European countries and the United States. According to many economists, Keynes's "General Theory" was a turning point in economics. and largely determines the economic policy of countries at the present time. The main new idea of the General Theory is that the system of market economic relations is by no means perfect and self-regulating, and that only active state intervention in the economy can ensure the maximum possible employment and economic growth. The personality of John Keynes is unique. His abilities turned out to be consonant with the new needs of the restructuring of economic theory. Keynes was born in the family of a teacher at Cambridge University, studied at Eton<#"justify">Keynes was interested not only in science, but also in the problems of public policy. He was attracted by practical activities, a political career, which determined Keynes's great state activity. In this regard, he has a new approach to economic theory. J. Keynes owns a huge number of works on economic problems, which are published in 33 volumes. Among them: the first work "The Index Method" (1909), for which he received the A. Smith Prize, "Index Currency and Finance" (1913), "Economic Consequences of the Treaty of Versailles" (1919), "Treatise on Monetary Reform" ( 1923), A Quick Look at Russia (1925), The End of Lasser Faire (1926), A Treatise on Money (1930), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), which brought Keynes world fame. Keynes attached great importance to the influence of economic theory on the life of society. His words are widely known: “The ideas of economists and political thinkers - both when they are right and when they are wrong - are much more important than is commonly thought. In reality, only they rule the world. ”The truth of these words can be confirmed, if only by remembering how the ideas of Aristotle, the mercantilists, the physiocrats, the classics of bourgeois political economy A. Smith and D. Riccardo, K. Marx and representatives of other economic trends influenced the social structure . 1.2 Main content Keynesian revolution The economic theory of J. Keynes is a synthesis of continuity and innovation. He criticized some of the main provisions of neoclassical theory, which in economics was called the "Keynesian revolution". What is the "Keynesian revolution"? The most important thing is the preference of macroeconomic analysis to the microeconomic approach. It was Keynes who laid the foundations of macroeconomics. At the center of his analysis is the national economy as a whole. In this regard, his macroeconomic method is based on the study of dependencies and proportions between general economic values, among which are: national income, total savings and consumption, investment. But it should be said that on the whole he did not reject the microanalysis of the neoclassicists, he simply believed that under the prevailing conditions its possibilities were limited. Carrying out macroeconomic analysis, Keynes defines the subject of economic science in a new way. He believes that the subject is the study of quantitative relationships of aggregate national economic values (investment - total income, investment - employment and total income, consumption - savings, etc.), the results of which are used to develop economic policy programs aimed at ensuring sustainable economic development. Keynes also noted that the goal is to select those variables that are amenable to conscious control or management by the central authorities within the economic system in which we live. To implement the subject of research, Keynes uses a new conceptual apparatus. Thus, he introduces the following concepts: effective demand, marginal propensity to consume and save, marginal efficiency of capital, aggregate supply and demand, full employment, marginal efficiency of capital, liquidity preference. The methodology of Keynes's macroeconomic theory also has its own characteristics. The basis is formed by macroeconomic analysis, the central point of which is the theory of reproduction of all social capital, on which the program of state regulation of the economy is based. However, Keynes does not study the essence of the reproduction process, but devotes macroeconomic analysis to the elucidation of cumulative economic processes with the help of certain functional dependencies of aggregative quantities. Keynes's methodology is characterized by the use of a subjective-psychological approach. But Keynes is guided by the total psychological factor, with which he associates the state of the market economy as a whole, in contrast to the representatives of the Cambridge school, who considered economic processes as a reflection of the psychology of the economic individual. Based on the method of abstraction, Keynes divides economic phenomena into three groups of quantities: ) "initial" (data) values that are accepted as constants (amount of labor, level of technology, qualifications, degree of competition, social structure, etc.); ) "independent variables" built on the basis of a psychological factor (propensity to consume, preference for liquidity, marginal efficiency of capital) - this group of quantities forms the functional basis of Keynes's model, the tools with which, in his opinion, the functioning of a market economy is ensured; ) "dependent variables" that characterize the state of the economy (employment, total income). Keynes also spoke out against the neoclassical understanding of the main task and goal of economics. For neoclassicists, the main task and goal of economics is to choose the best option for using scarce scarce resources, with scarcity acting as the starting point in economic analysis. In reality, what was observed was not so much limited resources as an overabundance of resources - mass unemployment, underutilization of production capacities, idle capital, unsold goods. Keynes believed that before looking for the best option for using scarce resources, an economist must answer the question: how to go from part-time to full-time? That is, J. Keynes expanded the understanding of the subject of economic science, including an analysis of the depressive economy. Keynes' theory is very pragmatic. It is closely related to the interpretation of public policy objectives. Keynes's theory made a turn from a socially neutral economic science to the theory underlying the formation of state policy. As a result, economics has a practical function. Keynes' theory set the stage for government intervention in the economy. CHAPTER 2 2.1 Concepts of the economic role of the state Keynes and his followers, like the neoclassicists, are supporters of a market economy, that is, an economy whose life is organized, coordinated and directed mainly by the market - the mechanism of free prices, profits and losses, the balance of supply and demand. But their assessment of the possibilities of this mechanism is different. For this reason, the point of view on the place, role, goals of the state function in the economy also differs. Unlike the neoclassics, Keynes believed that the state should not be just a "night watchman" in the market, the state should be an instrument for regulating economic processes, since overcoming market failures requires active state intervention. The effectiveness of state regulation of economic processes depends on finding funds for public investment, achieving full employment, reducing and fixing the rate of interest. At the same time, he allowed the issuance of additional amounts of money. A budget deficit must be prevented by an increase in employment and a fall in the rate of interest. Allowed Keynes and rising prices. It should be said that Keynes was very calm about inflationary processes. He believed that the state could well control inflation. J. Keynes in his theory drew practical conclusions for the economic policy of the state. Keynes divides all economic factors into three groups: initial (specified) independent variables dependent variables Keynes saw the task of state intervention in influencing independent variables, and through their mediation - on employment and national income. The first, most important, factor in increasing effective demand, Keynes considered the stimulation of investment through the use of monetary and budgetary policies. Initially, Keynes, considering interest as the most important parameter, prefers an indirect form of government intervention - monetary regulation. Monetary policy is an all-round lowering of the interest rate in order to reduce the lower limit of the effectiveness of future investments and make them more attractive. To do this, Keynes proposes to pursue a policy of "cheap money", that is, pumping the economy with money supply. The increase in the amount of money, in his opinion, makes it possible to more fully satisfy the need for liquid reserves. When they become excessive, the liquidity propensity and the rate of interest decrease. Excess reserves (savings) are partly used to buy consumer goods, thereby increasing consumer demand, and partly to purchase securities, which expands investment demand. As a result, aggregate demand rises, and national income and employment reach equilibrium at a higher level. An increase in income, in turn, means an increase in savings and investment due to a decrease in the rate of interest. However, monetary policy is limited, because at a sufficiently low rate of interest, the economy may find itself in the so-called liquidity trap, when the rate of interest will not decrease further, no matter how much the money supply increases. In this regard, Keynes believes that money market policy should be complemented by an active fiscal or fiscal policy. Fiscal policy (from the ancient Roman "fiscus" - "money basket"), according to Keynesian theory, consists in the management of aggregate demand for certain purposes through the manipulation of taxes, transfers and government purchases. Budget policy involves active financing, lending to private entrepreneurs from the state budget. Keynes called this policy the "socialization of investment." In order to increase the amount of resources needed to increase private investment, the budget policy provided for the organization of public procurement of goods and services. Since private investment in a depression is sharply reduced due to pessimistic views about the prospects for profit, the decision to stimulate investment should be taken by the state. At the same time, the main criterion for success for the state budget policy, according to Keynes, is an increase in effective demand, even if the spending of money by the state looks useless. The second factor in increasing effective demand is consumption. J. Keynes believed that the state should take measures aimed at increasing the propensity to consume. The main activities in this direction are the organization of public works and the consumption of civil servants. In addition to these main measures, John Keynes proposed to redistribute part of the income in favor of the poor and thus reduce wealth inequality. Keynes assigned the leading importance to non-discretionary fiscal policy, which implies an automatic change in net tax revenues to the state budget during periods of changes in national production volumes. Such a policy is based on the action of "built-in flexibility mechanisms" that are able to absorb the crisis. To them he attributed income social taxes, unemployment benefits. According to Keynes, built-in stability arises from the presence of a functional relationship between the state budget and national income, and its functioning is based on the existing tax system and the given structure of public spending. So, in reality, the tax system provides for the withdrawal of such a net tax amount, which varies in proportion to the value of the net national product (NNP). In this regard, as the level of NNP changes, automatic fluctuations (increase or decrease) in tax revenues and the resulting budget deficits and surpluses are possible. Keynes believed that the "built-in" nature of stabilizers provides a certain automatic flexibility of the economic system, since, by causing changes in the size of the state budget, it affects inflation and unemployment. Taxes lead to a loss, and government spending leads to an increase in the potential purchasing power in the economy. Therefore, according to Keynes, in order to ensure and maintain stability, it is necessary to increase the volume of tax leaks (restrain government spending) during the recovery and movement of the economy towards inflation in order to curb the growth of investment, reduce real incomes of consumers and reduce consumer spending. The anti-inflationary effect is that as the NNP grows, there is an automatic increase in tax revenues, which eventually leads to a reduction in consumption, restrains excessive inflationary price growth, and, as a result, causes a decrease in NNP and employment. The consequence of this is a slowdown in the economic recovery and the formation of a trend towards the elimination of the state budget deficit and the formation of a budget surplus. During periods of economic slowdown, crisis production cuts and rising unemployment, it is advisable to reduce tax exemptions (increase in government spending) in order to ensure income growth, which will stimulate an increase in investment activity and expansion of personal consumption. In this situation, a decrease in NNP would automatically reduce tax revenues, which would soften the recession and move the government budget from surplus to deficit. Thus, in Keynesian theory, fiscal policy focuses mainly on changes in the amount of taxes levied in relation to the amount of government spending. The main indicator of fiscal policy is the change in the budget position, that is, the size of the deficit or surplus of the federal budget. It should be emphasized that Keynes was not a supporter of such direct forms of state intervention as nationalization, state ownership or state enterprise. “It is not the ownership of the instruments of production that is essential for the state. If the state could determine the total amount of resources intended for increasing the instruments of production and the basic rates of remuneration for the owners of these resources, everything that is necessary would be achieved,” he wrote. 2.2 Development features neo-Keynesianism The theory of J. Keynes went through several stages in its development. She gained particular popularity in the post-war years. And in the 1950s - 1960s. faith in the possibility of solving the acute problems of a market economy with the help of the state was finally established. The scale of state regulation in developed countries has expanded. As a result, the entire post-war period until the beginning of the 70s of the XX century. went down in history as the Keynesian era. From the second half of the 30s. Keynes's doctrine has become widespread in economic theory and economic practice in Western countries. This is how Keynesianism arose - a whole set of many ramifications of economic science based on Keynes's theory. Keynes's followers developed his ideas of the economic policy of the state, expanded their understanding, and also developed the instruments of state regulation. The English economist S. Harris noted that “Keynes created the skeleton of economic theory. Other economists had to add flesh and blood to it.” Subsequently, Keynesianism was divided into two currents: neo-Keynesianism and left Keynesianism. NEO-KEYNSIAN Neo-Keynesianism is a school of macroeconomic thought that developed in the post-war period on the basis of the works of J. M. Keynes<#"justify">Neo-Keynesianism proceeds from the main premise of Keynesianism about the loss of capitalism's spontaneous mechanism for restoring economic equilibrium and the need for state regulation of the capitalist economy for this reason. The peculiarity of neo-Keynesianism in this regard is that, reflecting a more mature stage in the development of state-monopoly capitalism, it advocates a systematic and direct, and not sporadic and indirect, as in Keynes's theory, the impact of the bourgeois state on the capitalist economy. For the same reason, the main problematics of the bourgeois concept of state regulation of the economy changed - a transition was made from the so-called employment theory, which focuses on anti-crisis regulation of the economy, to theories of economic growth, which aim to find ways to ensure sustainable economic development of the capitalist system. The methodology of neo-Keynesianism is characterized by a macroeconomic, national economic approach to the consideration of reproduction problems, the use of so-called aggregative categories (national income, total social product, aggregate supply and demand, aggregate investment, etc.), which allows, on the one hand, to catch some of the most general quantitative dependences of the process of capitalist reproduction, and on the other hand, to avoid considering its class essence and antagonistic character. Like Keynesianism, neo-Keynesianism focuses mainly on the specific economic quantitative dependencies of the simple labor process in its national economic aspect, abstracting, as a rule, from capitalist production relations or interpreting them in a vulgar and apologetic way. Under the conditions of the scientific and technological revolution, neo-Keynesianism is forced to abandon the abstraction characteristic of Keynesianism from changes in the productive forces of bourgeois society and introduce indicators of the development of technology into its analysis. So, R. Harrod developed the concept of "capital ratio", which he interpreted as the ratio of the entire amount of capital used to national income for a certain period of time, i.e. as a kind of indicator of the “capital intensity” of a unit of national income. At the same time, neo-Keynesianism raises the question of the types of technical progress, highlighting, on the one hand, technical progress leading to savings in living labor, and on the other hand, those that ensure the savings of materialized labor in the means of production (according to the terminology of neo-Keynesianism, capital). “Neutral” technical progress, considered as a typical phenomenon, is the name given to that kind of development of technology in which the tendencies to economize labor and economize capital are balanced, so that the quantitative ratio of labor and capital does not change, hence the organic composition of capital does not change. Meanwhile, the analysis shows that for all the contradictory nature of the factors affecting the dynamics of the organic composition of capital, its main trend in the conditions of the modern scientific and technological revolution is a tendency to increase. Complementing Keynes's theory of reproduction, including his theory of the multiplier, neo-Keynesianism put forward the theory of the accelerator. Based on the combination of these theories, neo-Keynesianism interprets the expansion of capitalist reproduction not as a socio-economic, but as a technical and economic process. Supporters of neo-Keynesianism have developed specific formulas for expanded capitalist reproduction, the so-called model of economic growth, which, as a rule, do not represent the total movement of the constituent parts of the entire social product and capital, considered from the point of view of their physical and cost structure. Usually, neo-Keynesian models of economic growth capture only individual quantitative relationships of the reproduction process, mainly in its specific economic aspect. The neo-Keynesian concept of "economic growth" (boosting investment in scientific research, new technology, infrastructure with the help of state funding, measures for the structural restructuring of the economy, etc.) runs into the limitation of the goal of capitalist production, the policy of limitation pursued by state-monopoly capitalism, and and sometimes lowering the standard of living of the working masses (for example, the policy of "freezing" wages, increasing taxes on workers' incomes, state regulation of prices, leading to an increase in high prices, etc.). For this reason, neo-Keynesian measures of economic regulation have not, and cannot, save capitalism from its inherent contradictions. Moreover, the policy of "economic growth" has led to deficit financing of the economy, inflation, exacerbation of the trade war between capitalist countries, currency crisis, environmental destruction, and so on. 2.3 Post-Keynesian current Left Keynesianism is a reformist version of Keynesian theory. This trend emphasizes the novelty of Keynesian teaching, its revolutionary role, the break with neoclassical theory. Left Keynesianism was most widespread in England. It was based on an influential group of economists at the University of Cambridge. Left Keynesianism was led by Joan Robinson. His supporters were N. Kaldor, P. Sraffa, J. Itwell, L. Pasinetti and others. Rejecting the neoclassical theory, the left Keynesians criticized the concept of Keynesian orthodoxy. They criticized the orthodox concept for the fact that it did not reflect and did not solve social problems (for example, inequality in the distribution of income), without which a positive solution to the problems of the functioning of the economy and its regulation is unthinkable. By the beginning of the 1970s, the period of high rates of economic growth had ended. Two energy crises plunged the economies of developed countries in the second half of the 1970s into a long period of stagflation - a period when prices began to rise unusually quickly and at the same time there was a decline in production. Inflation has become the number one problem. Traditionally, the Keynesian concept of economic policy did not count on inflation. By underestimating the danger of inflation, with its emphasis on increased government spending and deficit financing of the economy, in fact, it itself contributed to the development of inflation. If in the 1960s budget deficits were rare, after the 1970s they became stable. Something else was added to inflation, which undermined the old concept of regulation - the deterioration of the conditions of reproduction, which shifted the focus of economic contradictions from the tasks of implementation to the problems of production; increasing the degree of "openness" of the economy: internationalization and strengthening of external economic relations; inefficiency generated by the growth of the state apparatus and its bureaucratization. All these circumstances caused extreme dissatisfaction with Keynesian macroeconomic policy and sharp criticism of the entire Keynesian theoretical system. The crisis was experienced not just by Keynesian theory, but by the entire concept of the "welfare state", in other words, the concept of broad state regulation of the economy. And these are social priorities, a significant sector of state entrepreneurship, the redistribution of national income in favor of increasing government spending, and, finally, direct regulation of many areas of private entrepreneurship. As a result, the victorious march of Keynesianism as a theory and as an economic policy in the late 70s - early 80s ended with a "Keynesian counter-revolution" and a "conservative shift" in economic theory and in the policies of all developed countries. The central place in the economic theory of the West was again taken by the old neoclassical school, within which new directions of economic analysis arose, such as monetarism, the theory of rational expectations, and others. Proponents of these theories, in contrast to Keynesianism, believe that it is necessary to limit government intervention in the economy and the social sphere as much as possible, to reduce government taxes and spending. Naturally, they also oppose Keynesian macroeconomic policies. State regulation of demand violates, in their opinion, the action of market forces, and in the long run leads to an increase in inflationary trends. The Keynesian crisis reflected important changes in the economic policies of the governments of the industrialized countries. During the 1980s and 1990s, due to denationalization and privatization, there was a significant reduction in the public sector of the economy, and the growth rate of public spending slowed down, the share of which in GNP reached 50% in many European countries. The fight against the budget deficit and inflationary tendencies has become of paramount importance. But this, nevertheless, did not mean a complete rejection of Keynesian ideas, requiring state intervention for the purpose of social and economic stabilization. Politics has always been pragmatic - and so it has remained, and in its arsenal still retains many of the recommendations that were substantiated by Keynes and his followers. So, a certain stage in the life of Keynesian theory, which began in the 30s of the 20th century, has ended. Keynes's theory itself is still alive and developing in modern conditions. The history of Keynesianism is a history of continuous development, adaptation to changing reality, searches and refinements both in the field of theoretical analysis and in practical politics. How to make macroeconomic policy a more effective tool for economic regulation? How to stimulate the growth of production without causing (or supporting) inflationary tendencies? How to fight inflation without limiting economic growth and stimulating unemployment? All this is the central theme of modern Keynesianism. Today, modern Keynesians recognize the danger of further increases in government spending and budget deficits. That is why they no longer insist on such methods of state regulation of the economy. They recognize the need for budgetary constraints. However, while advocating a tighter budget policy, they justify the need and importance of using another regulatory tool - monetary policy. Reducing interest rates and expanding lending opportunities, they believe, will help boost investment demand and the overall recovery of the economy. At the same time, post-Keynesian economists are also looking for new ways to fight inflation that would not lead to a decrease in production and employment. According to some of them, anti-inflationary policy should also take into account the parameters that determine the formation of costs and income. As an anti-inflationary recipe, they propose the so-called income policy, that is, a voluntary agreement between employers and trade unions on a certain wage growth rate that does not exceed labor productivity growth, control over prices of natural monopolies, etc. In such a policy, they see the possibility of simultaneously solving the problem of employment and inflation - something that traditional fiscal and monetary levers are unable to provide. At present, in our country, many supporters of state regulation of the economy, regardless of what tools and methods of regulation are in question, are ready to rely on the authority of John. Keynes. However, not all so simple. As Doctor of Economics I. Osadchaya says, the following points must be taken into account here: it should be remembered that Keynesian theory and politics proceed from the existence of a developed market economy, but we are in the process of transition to this economy with all its peculiarities, absurdities and difficulties, therefore a direct "imposition" of Keynesian theory on our economy is not suitable; one should listen to the voice of modern post-Keynesians, who advise to treat the budget deficit with extreme caution, shifting the emphasis from the budget and the growth of government spending to monetary policy as the main instrument of indirect impact on the economy; our transitional economy requires a special approach to the role of the state, since this is a period of both breaking the old state system of government and creating a new market infrastructure by the state. All these problems are not directly related to Keynes's theory. However, it is necessary to know it, like the entire economic theory of the West, and not separate provisions taken out of the historical context. Knowledge of the theory and experience of developed countries, understanding of the conditions in which this or that measure of economic policy has an effect can both help and protect against mistakes in the course of unnecessary experimentation. Keynesian economics growth state CONCLUSION In conclusion, we can conclude that the economic doctrine of J.M. Keynes has been and remains the subject of special attention, discussions and criticism, which are conducted mainly around the problem of state intervention in the market economy. This is due to the fact that at the stage of socio-economic development of society after the global economic crisis of 1929-1933. Keynesianism proposed a number of measures, the application of which contributed to the stabilization, and then further growth of the economy. However, in the course of the economic evolution of society at the turn of the 60-70s. In the 20th century, Keynesian recommendations have exhausted themselves to a certain extent and demanded new approaches to ensuring a dynamic and balanced development of the economy. In turn, these measures, at a certain stage (80-90s of the 20th century), also ceased to have their decisive impact on the economic development of society and, therefore, were also either replaced or improved. The history of Keynesianism is a history of continuous development, adaptation to changing reality, searches and refinements both in the field of theoretical analysis and in practical politics. Based on the categories of Keynesian analysis, neo-Keynesian theories of cyclical development of the economy and theories of economic growth were created. Today, Keynesianism is developing in a new guise, called post-Keynesianism. It turned out to be organically connected with the current realities of economic development. Modern economic theory is unthinkable without the contribution of John. Keynes. At present, the name of Keynes is mentioned not only in student lectures. Politics has always been pragmatic - and so it has remained, and in its arsenal still retains many of the recommendations that were substantiated by J. Keynes and his followers. BIBLIOGRAPHY Sazhina M. A. Scientific foundations of the economic policy of the state. M.: Infra-M, 2001 History of economic doctrines / Ed. Shmarlovskaya G. A. Mn: New banner, 2003 Pomyakshev N.F. History of Economic Thought. Samara: Publishing house of SGPU, 2006 Yadgarov Ya. S. History of economic doctrines. M.: INFRA-M, 2007 Keynes JM General theory of employment, interest and money. M.: Helios ARV, 1999 Lejonhufvud A. Keynes as a follower of Marshall // Questions of Economics. 2006 Manevich V. E. Keynes' theoretical system // Business and banks. 2006 Osadchaya I. Creative legacy of J. M. Keynes//Science and life. 1997. No. 11, 12 Osadchaya I. Evolution of macroeconomic theory after Keynes // Questions of Economics. 2006. No. 5 Ryzhanovskaya L. Yu. Economic theory of John. M. Keynes: a systematic view of the savings process//Finance and credit. 2007. No. 27 Harcourt J. Post-Keynesian thought // The Economist. 2005Similar works to - J.M. Keynes as the founder of Keynesianism
John Maynard Keynes is one of the greatest economists of the 20th century. Thanks to his analytical work, many important reforms were introduced into the world economy, including the creation of the World Monetary Fund and the Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
John Maynard Keynes was born in one of the educational centers of England - Cambridge - on June 5, 1883. His family belonged to the intellectual elite - his father was an economics teacher and chief administrator at the university, while his mother was engaged in social activities, and later became the mayor of the city. John also had a younger brother and sister. Jeffrey Keynes was a talented surgeon, and Margaret married the famous psychologist Archibald Hill. In marriage, they had a daughter, who also became a successful economist.
The boy received his primary education in one of the most respectable schools of that time - at Eton. From an early age, he was drawn to knowledge, participated in discussion clubs and other intellectual associations. At school, John became interested in mathematics, Latin and Greek. From the age of 16, the young man began working in the school library, where he was able to get information about his ancestors and build a family tree up to the time of William the Conqueror.
Immediately after leaving school, John entered the most prestigious of the colleges of the University of Cambridge - the Royal. Here he became a member of the Cambridge Apostles community, which included many representatives of intellectual youth. He presented his first scientific works to them, which were originally devoted to ethics and the theory of probability. Among his teachers were such famous personalities as Henry Sidgwick and Alfred Marshall.
As a student, Keynes was also interested in politics, which led him to become president of the Cambridge Union in 1905. In the same year, the Bloomsbury Circle was formed, of which John and his friends from the "apostles" became members.
Such a society affected the outlook of the young economist. John did not deny himself the pleasures of a dissolute era and did not hide his love relationship with one of the members of the circle - the Scottish artist Duncan Grant. However, they did not last long - in 1909 the couple broke up.
While still a student, in 1906, Keynes was invited to serve on the Royal Commission on the Finance and Currency of India. Here he spent more than 7 years. In 1913, Keynes published his first printed work, The Monetary Circulations and Finances of India.
John graduated from King's College in 1908 and brilliantly defended his dissertation on the method of mathematical induction and the theory of probability. It was published only 13 years later, after making some comments and additions, under the title "Treatise on Probability". After the defense, Keynes began to lecture on economic theory and did not leave teaching until the end of his life. All this time he also lived not far from the University of Cambridge - in an apartment on King Lane, where he moved in 1909.
In 1915, Keynes began his career at the Treasury. Here he is responsible for foreign exchange reserves and economic relations with the allies of Great Britain during the First World War. In 1919 he was a member of the British delegation to the Paris Peace Conference. Here he speaks negatively about the indemnities imposed on Germany, predicts the destabilization of the economy and suggests that such a policy could lead to a new world-wide war. No one heard Keynes's arguments, as a result of which he refused to represent the delegation of his country. He later set forth his considerations in two outstanding books published in the same year: The Economic Consequences of the Versailles Agreement and The Revision of the Peace Treaty.
In the 1920s, Keynes devoted most of his time to teaching at Cambridge, and also trying to predict the future of the economy, both globally and within the UK. The economic situation in the world that developed in 1921 prompts him to think about the problems of employment, price stability and inflation. Keynes sees the solution in the introduction of a regulated currency instead of the existing gold standard. The result of his analytical work was the Treatise on Monetary Reform, published in 1923.
In 1925, Keynes published the pamphlet The Economic Consequences of Churchill, in which he severely criticized the principles of the British economy. He believes that the government needs to maintain the stability of domestic prices, and not to overstate the exchange rate, which was inherent in the monetary policy of the time.
In the same year, Keynes decides to take a responsible step - he marries Lydia Lopukhova, a Russian ballerina, whom he has known for more than 7 years. The couple failed to have children due to medical conditions.
Together with his wife, John visited the Soviet Union twice. During the first visit, he became interested in the structure of the communist system and expressed his opinion in the article “A Brief Impression of Soviet Russia”. If in it he still noted some advantages of the policy of Bolshevism, then the second visit in 1928 finally convinced the economist of his hostility to the NEP.
Although Keynes was more than once able to profitably invest money and predict various economic processes, the stock market crash in 1929 came as a real surprise to him. The economist lost most of his capital investments and was on the verge of bankruptcy. However, the experience in doing business allowed Keynes to quickly make up for the loss.
In 1930, Keynes' major work, A Treatise on Money, saw the light of day. He again returns to questions about the monetary system, the gold standard and the exchange rate, and also tries to find an application of his theory to the realities of the twentieth century.
The main result of Keynes's scientific work was the "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", dating back to 1936. In it, he most fully outlines the need to create special tools for regulating the economy and intervening in economic issues at the state level. This is how the concept of "Keynes' multiplier" appears, as well as "Keynes's basic psychological law" about the relationship between personal income and consumption level. This work brings Keynes world recognition and secures his position as a leader in economic policy.
In 1940, Keynes became an adviser to the British Treasury. Dealing with the problems of financing the army, in the same year he published the treatise "How to pay for the war?", Offering the most profitable plan for maintaining the country's economy during hostilities.
In 1942, Keynes became a member of the House of Lords.
In 1944, with the help of Keynes, the foundations of international economic relations of the post-war period were developed. On their basis, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for Reconstruction and Development were established in 1946.
John Maynard Keynes, English economist, was born in 1883 in the UK (Tilton estate, Sussex).
His father, John Nevil Keynes, taught economics and philosophy at the University of Cambridge, his mother, Florence Ada Brown, was a well-known writer of that time, the first woman mayor of Cambridge. In addition to him, the family had a younger brother and sister, who also achieved considerable success in life.
Until the age of nine, John was homeschooled and already at an early age was quick-witted. There is a legend that four-year-old John was asked what interest was, to which he replied: “If I give you a halfpenny coin and you hold it for a long time, then you will have to return it to me and another like it.”
At the age of nine, he went to Saint Faith Primary School, where at first he did not stand out from other students. However, three years later he was recognized as the best in the class in mathematics.
John received his secondary education at Eton, one of the most prestigious schools in Britain, where they were admitted according to the results of the exams. Already in these years, he had a hobby that largely influenced his later life - he began to collect rare books. Several times he won first place at school in mathematics, and in 1901 he was also recognized as the best in history and literature.
In 1902, John Keynes entered Cambridge. Initially, his main subjects were mathematics and philosophy. However, under the influence of his father's friend, the famous economist Alan Marshall, he became interested in economics.
In the last two courses, Keynes already combined work with study - since 1906 he was an employee of the Department of Indian Affairs.
In 1908, after graduating, John Keynes became a lecturer in economics at Cambridge. It is noteworthy that Keynes did not part with this work for the rest of his life. In 1909, he published his first economic article on the impact of the world economic crisis on India, and in 1913, his first book, Monetary Circulation and Finance in India.
John Keynes served in the Treasury from 1914 to 1919. In 1919, he took part in the Paris peace talks. Then Keynes opposed the terms of the Versailles Peace Treaty, on the basis of which Germany was subjected to harsh sanctions. However, the point of view of the young scientist-economist was not taken into account.
In the 1920s, Keynes served on the board of directors of several investment and insurance companies at once, was engaged in publishing activities - he published his own magazine, the Nation, and was the editor-in-chief of the Economic Journal. During this period he wrote three books: A Treatise on Monetary Reform (1923), The End of Laissez-Faire (1926) and A Treatise on Money (1931).
The stock market crash in the United States in 1929 and the Great Depression that followed did not spare even such a great economist as Keynes - he lost almost all his savings.
In 1936, his main work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, was published. This paper examines the principles and methods of state regulation of the economy, lays the basic principles for the analysis of market relations.
After the outbreak of World War II, Keynes returned to public service in the Treasury. For several years he was one of the consultants on the functioning of the economy in wartime, and at the end of the war he was actively involved in the preparation of the Bretton Woods agreement to establish the IMF and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank.
Keynes was married to the Russian ballerina Lidia Lopukhova. Several times he happened to visit Soviet Russia: in 1925 - at the 200th anniversary of the Russian Academy of Sciences and in 1928 and 1936 - with private visits.
There is an assumption that on one of his visits, Keynes met with Stalin, but perhaps this is only a legend. It is indisputable that in the most difficult years for Russia - during the Great Patriotic War, he took an active part in organizing Lend-Lease supplies, in 1941 he was a member of the government delegation during negotiations on organizing aid from the allies.
John Keynes died in April 1946.
The legacy of John Keynes was a whole direction in economics, which is named after him -
Topic 22. Economic views of D. Keynes.
Doctrine of D. Keynes about employment, effective demand, etc. Substantiation of the state regulation program.
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) is the founder of a new branch of economic theory - macroeconomics and the theory of macroeconomic regulation as the basis of economic policy. He was born in Cambridge in the family of a famous scientist, professor of logic and economics, was educated at the private school of Eton, King's College, Cambridge University.
In Keynes's theory, the central place is given to the principle of "effective demand". This is dictated by the fact that one of the vital problems of a highly developed market economy is the sale of goods, which is the main means of ensuring profits. The solution to this problem, according to Keynes, unlike the neoclassicists, must be sought primarily on the side of aggregate demand, which ensures the sale of resources and goods and determines the size of social production, employment and their dynamics, and not on the side of their supply.
Keynes shows that the crisis processes in the economy are due to the general conditions of reproduction, which are characterized by insufficient effective demand. In this regard, he concludes that the condition for ensuring the sale of manufactured products is to achieve effective demand, including consumer and investment, which is possible only with the use of various levers of state intervention aimed at activating and stimulating aggregate demand (general purchasing power) and allowing to regulate the conditions of implementation. The state, notes Keynes, must perform a compensating function in case of a lack of demand or its weak efficiency.
Keynes decomposes aggregate demand into consumer demand (C) and investment demand (I).
The volume of consumer demand, in his opinion, depends, on the one hand, on the size, on the other hand, on how the total money income is spent. Therefore, he agrees that demand increases when income increases, but argues that since not all money is spent, the increase in spending does not equal the increase in income. Keynes explains this by saying that when a certain level of prosperity is reached, part of the income is set aside in the form of savings. As a result, income is divided into personal consumption (C) and savings (S), equal to the sum of their costs: C + S.
In this regard, Keynes writes that effective demand is the total income (revenue) that entrepreneurs expect to receive (including the amounts they pay to the owners of other factors of production as income) in accordance with the level of current employment that they decide to provide. He identifies effective demand with all revenue, including profit, wages, interest, and rent.
At the same time, Keynes considers "effective" such demand, which is actually presented, and is not potential effective demand, in which the ratio of supply and demand is achieved, ensuring maximum profit. Therefore, in his opinion, the criterion for increasing the efficiency of demand is an increase in the share of savings actually placed in production in the form of investments that bring profit, compared with the size of the saved share.
Keynes uses effective demand as an incentive and at the same time limits on employment and the size of all production.
In the 1930s, during the economic crisis, Keynes recognized that in a market economy, the existence of unemployment is a regularity. In this regard, as one of the goals of his study, he sets: clarification of the causes of unemployment, factors affecting its size; definition of its volume and means for elimination.
Keynes argues that the presence of "involuntary" unemployment, in which workers cannot find work even at low wages, is a consequence of a lack of effective demand. In this regard, justifying the theory of effective demand, Keynes begins to study the problem of employment and shows that employment is a phenomenon derived from effective demand, and therefore the question of employment is also subject to the main goal of entrepreneurial activity - maximizing profits. He notes that the level of employment is set by the entrepreneur under the influence of the desire to maximize his profits.
In addition, Keynes substantiates the proposition that there is a dependence of the level of employment on the conditions for ensuring profits. He notes that the level of employment depends on the function of aggregate demand, which is determined by how the entrepreneur regards the prospects for earnings that develop under various ratios between consumption and investment. Keynes explains that entrepreneurs increase the employment of workers if profitable demand exceeds supply and revenues rise.
Keynes introduces the concept of full employment, by which he understands the "normal" unemployment rate, which is from 3 to 6% of the unemployed of the total number of employed, which is sufficient to put pressure on workers' wages and maximize profits.
Keynes believes that the achievement of the level of "full employment" is a condition for the equilibrium state of the market economy, and admits that this is possible provided that the level of consumption corresponds to the level of expected investment. Keynes explains the role of the investment component in ensuring full employment by the fact that at a certain value of the propensity to consume, the equilibrium level of employment depends on the value of current investment.
Keynes transfers the problem of employment to market theory, believing that the level of employment also depends on the capacity of the market. He considers employment as a "dependent" variable determined by changes in such "independent" variables as "propensity to consume", "marginal efficiency of capital", interest rate.
Keynes' government regulation program is aimed at limiting the autonomy of private enterprise and regulating the market process in order to expand the freedom of movement of aggregate capital and stabilize the economy. It includes a system of counter-cyclical measures to stimulate effective demand and a policy of deficit financing to ensure full employment, which are designed for a short period of action in conditions of underutilization of production capacities and mass unemployment.
The main object of state regulation is aggregate demand and investment.
According to Keynes, the main directions of state influence on investment activity are:
Budgetary and tax regulation, involving the manipulation of government purchases and transfer payments, taxes;
Monetary regulation, including the freezing of nominal and reduction of real wages, price increases, interest rate regulation, securities transactions, lending;
The use of "moderate inflation", which makes it possible to revive business activity and increase employment through price increases, and "controlled inflation", which involves the introduction of the practice of deficit financing, the issue of money in case of their shortage;
Redistribution of income in the interests of social groups receiving the lowest incomes, in order to increase "demand" and increase the money demand of mass buyers;
Pursuing a policy of full employment aimed at preventing significant unemployment, expanding the social security system.
Initially, Keynes, considering interest as the most important parameter, prefers an indirect form of government intervention - monetary regulation. He believes that with the help of government intervention in the money market, it is possible to regulate (lower) the interest rate in the long run and thereby influence effective demand.
To do this, Keynes proposes to pursue a policy of cheap money. The increase in the amount of money, in his opinion, makes it possible to more fully satisfy the need for liquid reserves. When they become excessive, the liquidity propensity and the rate of interest decrease. Excess reserves (savings) are partly used to buy consumer goods, thereby increasing consumer demand, and partly to purchase securities, which expands investment demand. As a result, aggregate demand rises, and national income and employment reach equilibrium at a higher level. An increase in income, in turn, means an increase in savings and investment due to a decrease in the rate of interest.
However, practice has shown that in conditions of a deep recession, when investment reacts little or almost to a decrease in the interest rate, monetary regulation is an ineffective method of stimulating investment.
In this regard, Keynes advocates an "active" public policy based on the theory of functional finance, according to which the amount of expenditure and the rate of taxation are subject to the needs of regulating aggregate demand, the level of which ensures the full use of capital and labor resources while maintaining price stability.
According to J. Keynes, economic growth is possible under the condition of full employment and a sufficient level of savings. But under the influence of the psychological law, large savings are not always accompanied by an increase in investment in the economy, and therefore can restrain its growth. Because of this, it is possible to slow down the increase in demand, the expansion of production and employment.
Based on these arguments, Keynes justifies the need for government intervention aimed at withdrawing excess savings through taxation, which allows increasing the size of government spending investments to bring aggregate demand to a level corresponding to "full" employment.
At the same time, according to Keynes, incentives for entrepreneurs to invest should be organized within the framework of a progressive tax system that would facilitate the redistribution of income from those who have savings to those who invest in production.
The rationale for a progressive tax structure is also linked to the idea that the propensity to save interacts with income levels. Saving is a function of income, so low-income earners most often have no savings and their propensity to consume is low. But with an increase in income, such a person, instead of increasing consumption, saves part of the income. Progressive taxes affect the distribution of income because rates increase as income rises, and so they can change the relationship between saving and consumption.
In this regard, progressive taxation is also a measure of state influence.
Keynes assigned the leading importance to non-discretionary fiscal policy, the action of "built-in flexibility mechanisms" that are able to absorb the crisis. He attributed income and social taxes, unemployment benefits to them.
According to Keynes, built-in stability arises from the presence of a functional relationship between the state budget and national income, and its functioning is based on the existing tax system and the given structure of public spending. So, in reality, the tax system provides for the withdrawal of such a net tax amount, which varies in proportion to the value of the net national product (NNP). In this regard, as the level of NNP changes, automatic fluctuations (increase or 1 decrease) in the size of tax revenues and the resulting budget deficits and surpluses are possible.
The “built-in” nature of stabilizers, Keynes believed, provides a certain automatic flexibility of the economic system, since, by causing changes in the size of the state budget, it affects inflation and unemployment.
Taxes lead to a loss, and government spending leads to an increase in the potential purchasing power in the economy. Therefore, according to Keynes, in order to ensure and maintain stability, it is necessary to increase the volume of tax leaks (restrain government spending) during the recovery and movement of the economy towards inflation in order to curb the growth of investment, reduce real incomes of consumers and reduce consumer spending.
The anti-inflationary effect is that as the NNP grows, there is an automatic increase in tax revenues, which eventually leads to a reduction in consumption, restrains excessive inflationary price growth, and, as a result, causes a decrease in NNP and employment.
The consequence of this is a slowdown in the economic recovery and the formation of a trend towards the elimination of the state budget deficit and the formation of a budget surplus.
During periods of economic slowdown, crisis production cuts and rising unemployment, it is advisable to reduce tax exemptions (increase in government spending) in order to ensure income growth, which will stimulate an increase in investment activity and expansion of personal consumption. In this situation, a decrease in NNP would automatically reduce tax revenues, which would soften the recession and move the government budget from surplus to deficit.
Thus, in Keynesian theory, fiscal policy focuses mainly on changes in the amount of taxes levied in relation to the amount of government spending. The main indicator of fiscal policy is the change in the budget position, i.e. the amount of the federal budget deficit or surplus.
At the same time, Keynes assumed that built-in stabilizers are not capable of correcting undesirable changes in the equilibrium NNP, they can only limit the depth of economic fluctuations. Therefore, the necessary correction of inflation or a decline in production must be provided through discretionary fiscal measures on the part of Congress, i.e. through its decisions to change tax rates, the tax structure and the amount of government spending. In particular, Keynes proposed to increase the investment activity of the state through the organization of public works - the construction of roads, the construction of enterprises, etc.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the followers of Keynes traditionally considered the achievement of a high level of employment as the main goals of macroeconomic policy and also recognized the leading role of fiscal regulation, which involves managing the budget deficit in order to expand or reduce aggregate demand.
Thus, the use of the state budget, including deficit financing, as the leading instrument of macroeconomic regulation was oriented towards the cyclical nature of the budget deficit and the absence of a noticeable influence of external factors.
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UDC 330.834.1
V.M. KOZYREV
ECONOMIC SCHOOL DLP POSTGRADUATE STUDENTS IN HISTORY AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE
JOHN MEINARP KEYNS1 HIS CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMIC SCIENCE
The business of smart people is to foresee trouble before it comes.
Diogenes Laertes
The heart of a statesman should be in his head.
Napoleon Bonaparte
A thousand years is barely enough to create a state; one hour is enough for it to disintegrate into dust.
John Byron
This article continues a series of articles that began in the first issue of the RMAT Bulletin for 2012. It deals with one of the leading trends in economic theory - Keynesianism. In this regard, special attention is paid to the teachings of J.M. Keynes, his influence on modern economic thought and on modern economic reality.
Key words: macroeconomics, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, the role of the state in social reproduction, the theory of controlled currency, the role of Keynesianism in overcoming the Great Depression, the economic and social significance of Keynesianism in modern conditions:.
This article continues a series of materials that started in the first issue of the present bulletin. Now, one of economic theory "s leading directions, Keynesianism, is closely analyzed. In this connection special attention is paid to John Maynard Keynes" doctrine and its influence on modern economic thought and on today "s economic reality.
Key words: macroeconomics, aggregate, demand, aggregate supply, state role in economic reproduction, controlled currency theory, Keynesian cross, state role in Great depression overcoming, Keynesianism's role in present conditions.
© Kozyrev V.M., 2013
FRAGMENTS OF BIOGRAPHY
John Maynard Keynes was born on June 5, 1883 in Cambridge in the family of professor-economist and philosopher John Neville Keynes, author of the classic scientific work The Subject and Method of Political Economy (1891). He was educated at Eton and Cambridge. After defending his dissertation, J.M. Keynes taught at King's College, later (from 1915 to 1919) worked at the Treasury, and in 1919 returned to Cambridge. In 1925 he married the Russian ballerina Lidia Lopukhova and visited the USSR three times (the last time in 1936). J.M. Keynes was destined to live in a turbulent era of wars, revolutions, crises and social upheavals. He passed away in 1946 at the age of 62, having witnessed the collapse of fascism.
For his scientific work, he prepared 30 volumes of works published and unpublished during his lifetime. The following of his outstanding works entered the history of economic science: "Economic Consequences of the Treaty of Versailles" (1919); "Treatise on monetary reform" (1923); Treatise on Money (1930); "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936), which made a real revolution in economics.
NEW IN THE METHODOLOGY OF STUDYING ECONOMIC REALITY
Before the work of J.M. Keynes, classical economic theory devoted all its attention to microeconomics and microanalysis. Value, capital, profit, rent, prices, incomes, unemployment and other
Economists of this trend considered some economic categories from the standpoint of a firm, an enterprise, an individual entrepreneur, an individual economic entity. A feature of Keynes's methodology is his attention to macroeconomic problems and indicators: investment, income, accumulation, savings, consumption - in a word, reproduction on the scale of the whole society. This is another aspect of the problem, this is macroanalysis, this is macroeconomics. His methodology is very pragmatic and social in the sense that it is tied to public policy objectives rather than firm policy. And although J.M. Keynes considers macroeconomic processes in a short period, his methodology inevitably raises questions of a social nature, questions of psychology and, of course, questions about the role of the state in macroeconomic processes.
Reproduction of social capital J.M. Keynes considers in a fundamentally new aspect - as the problem of macroeconomic balance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
Aggregate demand (AD - from the English aggregate demand) is the value of the real costs of all macroeconomic agents for final goods and services, at the same time it is the real volume of production of goods and services that all consumers of a given country are ready to buy at the current price level. Aggregate supply (AS - from English aggregate supply) is the level of cash real volume of social production of a given country at each given level of aggregate prices, these are all goods and services produced within a given country.
After the work of J.M. Keynes, the concept of “macroeconomic equilibrium in the AD-AS model” has firmly entered the economic literature. This model uses not microeconomic, but
cumulative, or aggregated, indicators. The most important of them are:
The real volume of social production, expressed in the form of gross domestic product (GDP) or in the form of national income (NI);
Aggregate prices of the totality of goods and services.
Not only the absolute sizes of GDP and NI are also widely used, but also the growth rates of GDP and NI. Macroeconomic equilibrium can only be characterized using aggregate demand and aggregate supply, i.e. based on these aggregates. Now the AD curve shows the change in the aggregate level of all expenses of all market entities at the macroeconomic level, depending on the change in the level of aggregate prices of the entire set of goods and services in society.
Aggregate supply (AS curve) reflects the real volume of commercial oil
sy and services that can be offered by all commodity producers of a given country at each given level of aggregate prices. Under these conditions, aggregate supply (AS) reflects the change in real output due to changes in the general level of aggregate prices; Now, at any point on the aggregate demand curve (AD), one can determine the value of nominal GDP, which is equal to the product of real GDP and the aggregate price deflator. Thus, in the Keynesian macroeconomic equilibrium, the coordinate system is fundamentally different than that of the economists of the classical economic school, which paid all attention to the ratio of supply and demand at the microeconomic level and ignored aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
The aggregate demand curve and the aggregate supply curve look like it is shown in the graphs (Fig. 1, 2).
Rice. Fig. 1 Aggregate demand curve 2. Aggregate supply curve
The law of aggregate demand reflects the relationship between the aggregate price, the volume of GDP and aggregate demand. The lower the general price level, the more GDP will be acquired by consumers, and vice versa, i.e. relationship between prices
and the volume of GDP is inverse. The law "works" provided that the amount of money in circulation remains unchanged in accordance with Fisher's equation MU = PQ.
The law of aggregate supply is an aggregated, i.e. reduced together
but, the supply of goods and services to the population, other producers and the state, reflecting the relationship between the aggregate price, GDP and aggregate supply. In this ratio, the relationship between prices and GDP is direct.
CRITIQUE OF PREJUDICES OF CLASSICAL THEORY
The new methodology of J.M. Keynes inevitably led him to criticize the prejudices of the old classical school. After A. Smith, the development of economic science went in two directions: bourgeois and Marxist. The Marxist trend inherited from A. Smith the concept of labor as a source of wealth. Out of the richness of A. Smith's ideas, the bourgeois trend adopted the idea of the market and the notorious "invisible hand"1. Keynes had to witness the Great Depression - the global economic crisis of 1929-1933. Under the conditions of this crisis, the failure of the old classical economic school became apparent. The vulgar expression of these views was Say's Law of the Market. According to the ironic remark of J.K. Galbraith (1908-2006), the adoption or rejection of Say's law before the 1930s, i.e. before the criticism of this “law” by J.M. Keynes, was the main feature by which economists differed from fools.
The French economist Jean Baptiste Say (1767-1832), an ardent supporter of the teachings of A. Smith, elevated the principle of market freedom, unlimited competition and the inadmissibility of state interference in economic processes to the rank of absolute. According to Say's views, a commodity producer sells his product in order to buy another product. According to this logic, it followed: each seller necessarily then becomes a buyer. Another conclusion follows from this:
1 For more on this, see .
ing automatically generates a corresponding amount of demand.
The essence of Say's law of the market is reduced to the following postulates: the supply of goods creates its own demand, i.e. the production volume of production automatically provides such an income that is equal to the value of all created goods and, therefore, sufficient for the full sale of these goods. This thesis assumed that the income received is fully spent and that all economic agents fully use their own money. The law leaves aside the question of savings, the reduction of aggregate demand, and the fact that part of the production may not be sold. Say's law states that supply and the demand generated by it quantitatively coincide. Violation of this equilibrium in accordance with Say's law can only be caused by external, non-market factors (war, drought, earthquake, government intervention). However, in this case, market self-regulation quickly eliminates all these violations. According to Say and his supporters, the market equilibrium is not disturbed if part of the income is converted into savings, because thanks to the interest rate, savings are converted into investments, and supply again creates an equilibrium demand for itself. Any leakage of savings, like water through a drain pipe (through interest), returns to the bath (in demand). In a word, the supporters of this law argued as an axiom that the discrepancy between supply and demand in the market is in principle unthinkable.
Followers of the classical, and in our time, neoclassical school, even after the works of J.M. Keynes argue that a market economy does not need state regulation of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The market economy is a self-regulating system in which equality is automatically ensured
income and expenses at full employment of resources. The instruments of self-regulation are prices, wages and interest rates, fluctuations of which, according to supporters of the classical and neoclassical points of view, equalize supply and demand. State intervention only brings harm. The experience of Russia's macroeconomic development after 1991 was based on the use of this neoclassical concept. The results were dramatic: in 2011, Russia's real GDP did not reach the level of 1990. The country's economy was thrown back by more than two decades.
Based on the realities of the Great Depression of 1929-1933, J.M. Keynes put forward the position that the economy under capitalism does not develop as smoothly and evenly progressively as the supporters of the classical school believed. He formulated the following objections.
First, the market economy is based not only on the exchange of goods for goods, but is always mediated by the exchange of money. Barter transactions in a market economy are an exception, a special and atypical case. The monetary factor plays an independent role in transactions: by accumulating money, economic agents perform the saving function, but thereby reduce the total volume of effective demand, which can actually cause overproduction in society as a whole.
Secondly, wages are far from being a flexible tool, as the supporters of the classical school believed. On the basis of previously concluded agreements and laws, wages may not decrease or increase for a certain period - it may remain unchanged, stable in nominal terms for a certain period of time.
Thirdly, over a short period, prices may also be fixed, rather than flexible, due to social protest against inflation. In 2009-2012 we have witnessed a huge strike movement on practically the entire European continent. The annual rise in prices for more than two decades (1991-2012) causes social discontent in modern Russia as well.
Fourth, the interest rate in real life does not equalize investment and savings, since not all savings turn into investments. The practice of the Russian financial sector over the past two decades has clearly confirmed this idea.
Fifth, full employment of the population is not automatically achieved by the play of market forces. This process requires government intervention. (The economic role of the state will be discussed in more detail below.)
In contrast to the classical (and now neoclassical) theory of J.M. Keynes put forward a fundamentally different thesis: it is not aggregate supply that determines aggregate demand, but aggregate demand determines aggregate supply and thereby determines the level of economic activity. Real aggregate demand induces society to produce the real volume of real products required by the market. And this Keynesian truth was confirmed by the economic crisis in Russia in 2008-2011. He showed that a fall in aggregate demand sharply reduces output, increases unemployment, and ultimately causes a contraction in GDP.
KEYNS ON THE ROLE OF THE STATE AS AN ANTI-CRISIS FACTOR
J. M. Keynes became a fighter during the Great Depression of 1929-1933. Massive stock market crash
on October 29, 1929, Black Tuesday marked the beginning of a crisis that, in its depth, duration and consequences, surpassed all previous crises since 1825. American bank Lehman Brothers!
Keynes becomes an adviser to US President F.D. Roosevelt. At that critical time, he proposes to the President of the United States a fundamentally new course of economic policy. This course was based on two postulates: the market and the state. Keynes rightly believed that the liberal market model inevitably leads capitalist society to a crisis, and ultimately to death, collapse. He suggested, and F.D. Roosevelt carried out a number of government measures that saved the US economy from imminent collapse. His macroeconomics is essentially the science of the fundamentals of state regulation of the market and market relations in a capitalist society.
The essence of the Keynesian proposals was as follows:
Saving the country's credit system through the nationalization of banks and guaranteeing the deposits of the population by the state;
Reducing the burden of debt by 40% by depreciating the dollar. This course is carried out in the United States and now as an anti-crisis measure;
State regulation of prices for agricultural products and state subsidies for agricultural production (this measure is still practiced in the USA);
Fight against unemployment through the organization of public works by the state;
State regulation of wages. This regulation is now carried out by almost all states, although the degree of regulation varies.
These and other economic sanctions of the state gave their results: by 1933 the United States emerged from the stage of crisis, in subsequent years it overcame the depression, and by 1939 entered the stage of recovery.
THE KEYINSIAN CONCEPT OF EFFECTIVE DEMAND
As the main factor that ensures the development of the economy in the conditions of state regulation, J.M. Keynes introduced the concept of efficient demand. Under the conditions of capitalism in the 1930s, the economic crisis was an overproduction of goods, capital and labor, i.e. excess of the volume of aggregate supply in comparison with the volume of aggregate demand. Under these conditions, J.M. Keynes raised the question of effective demand with all its sharpness.
To solve the problem of effective demand, we must clearly understand the Keynesian content of the concepts of "aggregate demand" and "aggregate supply". For these purposes, Keynes made an attempt to reveal the internal structure of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and thereby establish the influence of certain factors on macroeconomic equilibrium.
Aggregate demand is determined by its four components:
Consumer spending of the population;
Enterprise investments;
government spending;
Net exports, i.e. positive balance between exports and imports.
Government spending is either for consumption or for investment.
If we temporarily ignore the international relations of a given country, then we can conclude: aggregate demand includes consumer demand, i.e. consumption expenditures, and investment demand, i.e. purchase costs
shadowing of material factors of production and non-productive assets.
Consumption is the total amount of goods that are bought and consumed during a given period. Consequently, consumption characterizes real effective demand.
The volume of consumption depends on two groups of factors:
Objective - the level of income, the price level, the rate of interest, etc.;
Subjective - the psychological propensity of people to consume.
The main objective factor that determines the level of consumption is income, so consumption moves in the direction of the latter. Consumption is a function of income. The subjective propensity of people to consume can be medium and marginal. The average propensity of people to consume is expressed by the ratio of the consumed part of the national income to the total national income:
Average propensity to consume = Consumption
national income
The marginal propensity to consume is expressed as the ratio of the change in consumption to the change in income that caused it:
Marginal propensity to consume = Change in consumption Change in income A of consumption A of income
The marginal propensity to consume is the ratio between additional consumption and additional income. If a person's additional income is 10 thousand rubles, he will spend 8 thousand rubles. of them for additional consumption, then the marginal propensity to consume will be: 8,000 rubles: 10,000 rubles. = 0.8.
Keynes put forward the so-called basic psychological law. This law, “of the existence of which we can be quite sure, not only from a priori considerations, based on our knowledge of human nature, but also on the basis of a detailed study of past experience, is that people tend, as a rule, to increase their consumption with increasing income, but not to the same extent as income grows. The marginal propensity to consume is always positive but always less than one. In our example, it is equal to 0.8.
Man not only consumes, but also saves. Savings is that portion of income that is not consumed:
Savings = Income - Consumption.
Like consumption, savings depend on two factors: objective and subjective. The main objective factor is income, because income is the sum of consumption and savings. The main subjective factor is the propensity of a given person to save, i.e. desire to save.
The propensity to save is medium and marginal. The average propensity to save is expressed as the ratio of the saved part of the national income to the total national income:
Average Propensity to Save = Savings
national income
The marginal propensity to save is expressed as the ratio of any change in saving to the change in income that caused it:
Marginal propensity to save = Change in savings Change in income A of savings A of income
The marginal propensity to save is the ratio between additional saving and additional income. In our example, the additional income is 10 thousand rubles, of which 8 thousand rubles. spent on additional consumption, and 2 thousand rubles. - for additional savings. Therefore, the marginal propensity to save is:
2000: 10 000 = 0,2.
If total income is broken down into consumption and saving, then the increase in consumption plus the increase in saving is always equal to the increase in income. Under these conditions, the sum of the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity to save is always equal to one.
MPC + MPS = 1, MPC = 1 - MPS, MPS = 1 - MPC,
where MPC is the marginal propensity to consume; MPS - marginal propensity to save (from English marginal propensity to save).
Keynes draws attention to the fact that consumption can be carried out even at a zero level of income through the sale of previously accumulated property and through loans. This consumption, independent of income, he calls autonomous consumption. In our conditional example, the marginal propensity to consume at any level of income is constant and equals 0.8; the marginal propensity to save is 0.2. In real life, savings shares can be moving quantities. The dependence of consumption and savings on the level of disposable income in the economic literature is often called the Siamese twins, because all changes in the values of consumption and savings are carried out within a unit.
The second component of aggregate demand, J.M. Keynes, is
there is investment (productive consumption), investment expenditures. Savings form the basis of investments (from Latin investice - to clothe). Investment, or investment demand, is the expenditure of enterprises on the acquisition of capital or industrial goods in order to expand production. The role of investments (the term "capital investments" is often used in Russian literature) in the process of expanded reproduction is exceptionally great.
Economic growth at the macro level depends on many factors. The most important of them are:
The rate of accumulation, i.e. the share of investment in the profits of enterprises or the share of accumulation in national income;
Efficiency (effectiveness) of capital investments, i.e. increase in gross output at the micro level or increase in gross domestic product at the macro level in relation to investments, to capital investments;
Full employment and high efficiency in the use of labor resources, which is reflected in an increase in labor productivity;
Maximum and efficient use of material factors of production (increase in capital productivity, reduction of material and energy intensity, rationalization of nature management);
price stability;
Deficit-free budget;
Equilibrium of the balance of payments in the system of international relations.
Among all these factors, investments are of particular importance in solving the problem of economic growth, i.e. growth in national income and gross domestic product. Suppose the rate of accumulation in the past period was 20% of the national income. The effectiveness of these capital investments in this period amounted to 15 kopecks per 1 ruble.
It can be easily calculated that the growth rate of national income as a result of capital investments of the past period in this period will be: 0.15 x 0.20 = 0.03, or 3%. If in the next period we increase the share of investments in the national income to 25%, and their efficiency increases to 20 kopecks per 1 ruble, then in the next period we have the right to expect not a 3%, but a 5% increase in the national income. Accordingly, this will increase the GDP growth.
However, an increase in the rate of accumulation reduces the rate of consumption in each given period. Thus, the problem of finding the optimal ratio of consumption and accumulation funds arises. There are minimum and maximum limits of the accumulation rate. At the micro level, the minimum limit is to ensure wage growth and the payment of dividends. At the macro level, this border is the provision of employment for the country's population. The maximum limit - the entire increase in profits (at the macro level - the entire increase in national income) is directed to accumulation, i.e. the consumption fund is assumed to remain the same. In real life, both the enterprise and society as a whole are trying to find the optimal ratio of these funds. For accumulation today is the growth of the consumption fund tomorrow. “Accumulation,” wrote K. Marx, “is the conquest of the world of social wealth.”
The source of investment is savings. Keynes defines savings as the remainder of income after deducting consumption expenditures. The classical school, on the other hand, defines consumption as the remainder of income after savings have been deducted from it.
The situation is complicated by the fact that a person in the economic system of a market economy occupies a different position: savings are carried out by individuals (teacher, doctor, engineer, employee, military man, etc.), and investments are
legal entities (entrepreneurs, firms, the state, etc.). Under these conditions, savings and investments do not match either qualitatively or quantitatively. Only in legal entities do these concepts coincide in content, although quantitatively they may not coincide.
These circumstances oblige us to find out what factors determine the possibility and rate of investment. Without an answer to this question, we cannot solve the problem of aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
Like consumer demand, investment demand depends on objective and subjective factors.
Objective factors are the income of enterprises and the costs (costs) of investments, which are of a long-term nature. The greater the value of these costs and the longer the payback period, the less incentive to invest. Sources of investment can be own and borrowed funds.
From external factors, investments are influenced by:
The rate of return of the proposed investment - a low rate of return does not stimulate the inflow of investments;
Interest rate level - if the interest rate is higher than the rate of return on investment, then investing is not economically feasible;
Level of taxation - high tax rates reduce the possibility of investing;
The rate of inflation, the rate of depreciation of money - high inflation does not stimulate long-term investment.
The subjective factor is the inclination and desire of entrepreneurs to invest. This factor J.M. Keynes attaches great importance.
For simplicity of theoretical postulates, modern macroeconomic theory proceeds from the premise that savings and investments are always equal to each other.
Keynes pays particular attention to another side of the problem: he emphasizes the so-called autonomous investment. These are investments that do not depend on the level of income. The source of autonomous investment is public investment.
Let's sum up what has been said. The classical equilibrium model considered long-term unemployment impossible and assumed a flexible price mechanism and interest dynamics. Keynes showed that entrepreneurs, faced with a fall in demand for their products, do not lower prices. They cut production and lay off workers. Therefore, the market cannot eliminate unemployment.
Is it possible in conditions of stagnation and low marginal propensity to consume
the emergence of a situation of effective demand? Recall that effective demand is the aggregate demand corresponding to the aggregate supply.
Keynes proved that effective demand is also possible in conditions of stagnation and stagnation. To do this, it is necessary to add autonomous investments at the expense of the state and autonomous consumer spending also at the expense of the state to personal consumption expenditures. According to J.M. Keynesu, aggregate demand is formed by three components: consumption of the population, investment of enterprises and government spending. On this basis, the famous "Keynesian cross" is formed, which is shown in Fig. 3.
Rice. 3. "Keynesian Cross"
Here LP is aggregate demand; V - real GDP; E - the line characterizing the effective demand; С + I - consumer spending of the population (С) plus investments of enterprises (/); C + I + Ca - consumer spending of the population plus investments of enterprises plus autonomous consumer spending of the population at the expense of the state (Ca); C + / + Ca + ¡a - consumer spending of the population plus investments of enterprises plus autonomous
consumer spending of the population at the expense of the state plus autonomous investment at the expense of the state (/a).
Keynes proved that at all levels of reproduction it is possible to find the factor of effective demand, achieve equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and ultimately increase real GDP. Of course, it should be borne in mind that he took into account the short-term period (six months, a year). Short term salary
may be subject to the terms of the contract of employment. Changes in the interest rate and price level cause social discontent. Under these conditions, the recipes of J.M. Keynes would be very, very useful for overcoming the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia in the period from September 15, 2008 to January 1, 2010. However, the reality turned out to be harsh: the fall in GDP in the period “I quarter of 2008 to I quarter of 2009” in Russia was 11%, in Japan - 8.3%, in Germany - 6.9%, in the UK - 5.6%, in the USA - 3.9%, in France - 3.3%, but in the same period China's GDP increased by 10.1%, India's GDP - by 7.6% , Moreover, Russia was practically unprepared for the onset of the crisis
2008 . The results of 2009 were also recognized as disappointing: the value of Russia's GDP fell by 7.9%, industrial production - by 9.3%, investment - by 16.2%, unemployment increased by a third, export value decreased by 35.5% . In the same
2009 China increased its GDP by 8.7%, India - by 6.4%. And in subsequent years, the GDP growth rate in Russia turned out to be low: in 2010, GDP growth amounted to 4.3%, in 2011 - also 4.3%. Prospects for GDP growth in Russia in 2013 are even less optimistic. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2013 the GDP growth rate will reach 3.8%.
It is known that in many cases history does not teach anyone anything. It would seem that ways out of the crisis should be sought in the teachings of K. Marx, J.M. Keynes and Modern Institutionalists. But, alas! Recipes for a way out of the current crisis in Russia are again being sought from the classics and neoclassics. According to the caustic remark of Academician L.I. Abalkin, in the country “... the seemingly long-forgotten theory of “heroes and the crowd” in its modern manifestation is being revived. All questions and answers to them (as it is introduced into the mass consciousness) are known in Russia only by two people.
loveka. The rest of the population - from an ordinary worker to the highest officials - salutes and carries out instructions. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Then everything goes on a knurled track. The heads of ministries, departments, corporations, it turns out, also know the answers to their questions. Heroes don't need advisors. Therefore, professional specialists, people with extensive civil experience, are not allowed to discuss and, even more so, to make decisions.
Meanwhile, in the history of economic science and in modern economic thought there are a number of names and trends that could and should be in demand in modern Russian conditions. This fully applies to J.M. Keynes and his teaching - Keynesianism, which gives the state a huge role. Note that this aspect of Keynesianism is of great importance for Russia. Russia is a special civilization, it differs from Western and Asian civilizations, because of all European countries Russia is the most Asian, of all Asian countries Russia is the most European. Western civilization is made up of separate families that are held together by the ability to cooperate. Asian civilization has its basis in the clan, in which many families are held together by kinship ties. There are no clans in Russia, Russian families lack the instinct of cooperation. In Russia, only the state binds the entire population together. Therefore, in modern Russia, the idea of state insufficiency has become commonplace. The vast majority of the peoples of Russia are in favor of strengthening the economic, political, social role of the state, and only a narrow stratum of market oligarchs and the mass media subject to them furiously introduce the ideas of robbery, murder, violence, and the decomposition of the people in all its forms and manifestations, regardless of the state power.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF KEYINSIANITY
J.M. Keynes, perhaps for the first time after A. Smith, paid special attention to the psychological aspects of human behavior in economic realities. This need to take into account psychology in the behavior of all economic entities objectively arises in conditions of uncertainty and unpredictability of the market economic system. Let's remember the real facts of 2009, when the federal budget was reviewed six times during the year! Moreover, all six times the budget was proposed by the Government, and the Duma unconditionally approved it. However, after 1-1.5 months it turned out that the budget needed to be corrected and changed.
Only in conditions of certainty do psychological guesses and plans give way to reliable knowledge. In conditions of complete certainty, the behavior of economic entities is rational and predictable, because they know how to act, what economic decision should be made. It must be borne in mind that the very concepts of "rationality" and "certainty" are limited by the scope of our knowledge, the elements of absolute truth in the relative process of cognition.
The scientific merit of J.M. Keynes is that in the conditions of uncertainty of the market environment, he introduces a psychological factor. Above, we talked about the "basic psychological law" that people tend to increase their consumption as income increases, but not to the same extent as income increases. Keynes introduced into science the concepts of "marginal propensity to consume" and "marginal propensity to save", which are inherently subjective. Moreover, he made an attempt to determine the subjective factors of increasing savings.
The scientist-economist identified eight main incentives that are subjective
ny character that encourage a person to save:
The need to have a reserve in case of unforeseen circumstances;
Providing savings out of necessity (care for old age, the maintenance of dependents, the opportunity to educate children);
Providing income in the form of interest, increasing consumption in the future at the expense of less consumption in the present;
Subconscious desire to improve living standards in the future;
Enjoying a sense of independence and independent decision-making;
Entrepreneurship, the ability to carry out speculative and commercial operations, to have a flexible fund;
The desire to leave the heirs of the state;
A feeling of miserliness, a persistent prejudice against the very act of spending money.
"These eight stimuli may be called Caution, Providence, Calculation, Striving for the best, Independence, Enterprise, Pride, and Avarice." Of these eight, he identifies four main motives: enterprise; striving for the best; striving for liquidity, for increasing income; financial prudence and the pursuit of respectability.
According to J.M. Keynes, there are six subjective incentives that encourage a person to increase consumption:
Desire to enjoy life;
shortsightedness;
Generosity;
imprudence;
Vanity;
Waste.
Let us pay attention to the fact that these six subjective qualities are opposed by eight other subjective qualities:
caution, prudence, prudence, striving for the best, independence, enterprise, pride and stinginess. In this sense, every person in the economic world is in a Hamletian position: eight incentives encourage a person to save, and six incentives to increase consumption. Of course, the final subjective decisions on the problem (to consume or save) are infinitely varied and subjective.
The subjective aspects of human behavior clearly manifested themselves in Russia during the crisis of 2008-2010. Let us note right away that the depth and consequences of this crisis were not immediately understood and realized in Russian society. Some economists viewed it as a simple correction of "market errors". Other scientists sought to emphasize the health-improving, sanitizing function of the crisis, which would cleanse the Russian economy and the world economy of inefficient production and stimulate economical, innovative production. In both approaches, it was psychologically expected that very soon after the “correction” and “cleansing”, the interrupted growth would immediately resume. Now, until December 2015, we will psychologically console ourselves with the fact that we have come out of the crisis.
Very few economists have paid attention to the methodology of J.M. Keynes, who characterized the nature of the world crisis of 1929-1933. as a conflict of psychologically incompatible institutions of the capitalist market economy: a growing propensity to save and a weakening incentive to invest. He rightly believed that this conflict would not cause rapid economic growth. And Keynes was right: the crisis was followed by a depression that lasted almost until the start of World War II, i.e. until the end of 1939
Crises are not a new phenomenon in the history of capitalism. The cyclical development of the capitalist economy began in 1825 and has continued for almost two centuries. And no one in the world has been able to predict the onset of the next crisis. Even in September 2008, when the crisis really began to manifest itself, in Russia we heard the following judgments: “The crisis will pass us by,” stabilization fund.
When the crisis came to Russia, we heard other voices: “Already in 2010, the crisis passed, and very soon we will return to the pre-crisis level - either in December 2012, or in December 2013.” - as if December 2012 or December 2013 were coming days.
One thing is clear: there is no exact scientific calculation of economic development in Russia, but there are purely psychological guesses and wishes. Under these conditions, economists and politicians should take into account the approach of J.M. Keynes, i.e. take into account psychological factors, recognize them as reality, introduce the concept of uncertainty into the market economy, and consider real economic processes as a more complex mechanism in comparison with business games based on computer technologies.
In accordance with the theory of long waves N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938), capitalism is substantially updated every half century. By the beginning of the modern crisis, a new market psychology had developed. Note that the very term “market psychology” was also introduced into economics by J.M. Keynes. After the 1970s capitalism has become corporate: the share of corporations in the total number of enterprises is small - about 20%. However, their share in the world market now amounts to almost 90% of the commodity turnover. Under these conditions, the state itself in many developed capitalist countries
nah turned into a service apparatus for these corporations. On this economic basis, many of the most valuable thoughts of J.M. Keynes about the role of the state were forgotten. The influence of classical economic theory - now neoclassical - began to increase again. However, the global economic crisis of 2008-2011, which engulfed the developed capitalist countries, the so-called twenty, showed the complete collapse of the now neoclassical economic theory and prompted economists to turn again to the theory of J.M. Keynes. As soon as the sad consequences of a free market economy became apparent, voices began to be heard about the need for government intervention in order to restore the economy after the global crisis of 2008-2011. The decline of monetarism and neoclassicism began. Until recently, our liberals argued that the state is a brake on socio-economic development. After the crisis drama of 2009, other voices sounded in the economic literature: it is necessary to strengthen state regulation; the public sector is the locomotive of modernization. In this regard, we recall that 75 years ago J.M. Keynes put forward a convincing postulate: an efficient economy must have two foundations: the market and the state.
It is not without interest to remind modern opponents of state regulation a joke about which the famous English economist J. Mishan writes in his book “The Price of Economic Growth”: in the first year of study, economics students learn that the free market system is a wonderful mechanism; by their third year, they should have learned that there are many things the free market cannot do, and that there are many things it does very badly. Add to this irony that economists and political
figures should not remain at the level of knowledge of students of the first year of study. Unfortunately, Russian public figures are still trying to get out of the crisis by purely market methods.
Keynes on fighting unemployment based on investment multiplier
The famous work of J.M. Keynes "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" pays great attention to anti-crisis measures and, in this regard, to the fight against unemployment, to increase employment.
The employment problem of J.M. Keynes connects with the value of investment demand. In turn, he links investment demand with the multiplier theory. The concept of "multiplier" (from lat. tyShrNcaOg - multiplying) was introduced into science in 1931 by the English economist Richard Ferdinand Kahn (1905-1989). Considering the impact of public works, which were organized to combat the crisis and unemployment by the administration of F.D. Roosevelt, R. Kahn noted that government spending on public works leads to a "multiplier" effect of employment. On the basis of public works, not only primary employment arose, but also secondary, tertiary, etc. derivatives of it, as a result, the initial costs led to the multiplication (multiplication) of the purchasing power and employment of the population. The merit of J.M. Keynes is that it was he who proposed F.D. Roosevelt to organize public works at the expense of public funds received as a result of the nationalization of private banks.
In this connection it should be noted that truth is always concrete. When Keynes pi-
It is about the role of the state, it assumes that all the organs of the state, and above all the supreme power, serve the people, and not a narrow group of oligarchs. It is no coincidence that F. Roosevelt and J. M. Keynes were accused of sympathizing with the ideas of socialism, although in essence they were defenders of the capitalist economic system in its democratic form.
Under the multiplier, John. M. Keynes understood the coefficient that shows the dependence of changes in income on changes in investment:
Multiplier -
Change in real income
Initial change in costs
Multiplier - ---;- "
Investments
The investment multiplier is the ratio of income increment to investment increment. When there is an increase in investment, income increases by an amount that is several times greater than the increase in investment. Suppose that the increase in investment amounted to 100 billion rubles, and the increase in national income - 350 billion rubles. Therefore, the multiplier Km will be equal to
AED __ 3 RUB 50 billion K - - - 3.5.
m Investment 100 billion rubles.
The coefficient, which shows the excess of the growth of national income over the growth of investment, is the multiplier. The investment multiplier is directly related to the marginal propensity to consume and inversely related to the marginal propensity to save. Part of the increase in income is saved and part is spent, so the multiplication process
finite. It stops at the moment when the increase in savings becomes equal to the increase in income.
Every phenomenon is internally contradictory. Considering the positive impact of investment on increasing national income, one should not lose sight of the negative side of this process. This is the paradox of thrift. The multiplier effect also causes changes in the level of savings. The desire of everyone to increase their savings can be a social evil. If the economy is in a state of depression, recession, underemployment of resources, then an increase in the propensity to save means a decrease in the propensity to consume. Reduced consumer demand means it is impossible for entrepreneurs to sell their products. In this case, the population wants to save more than investors can spend. Savers are failing. Entrepreneurs begin to cut production. At the same time, the national income and the incomes of various segments of the population are falling.
The paradox of thrift is that the growth of savings reduces rather than increases investments in conditions of stagnation (from Latin stagnum - standing water), stagnation, crisis. The paradox of thrift can also be interpreted in the sense that high investment, high consumption, and low saving do not contradict each other, but help each other if the economy is in the recovery stage or in the recovery stage.
The effect of acceleration is closely related to the effect of multiplication (from Latin assektNo - acceleration). The essence of the principle or effect of acceleration is as follows:
The initial investment generates an increase in income based on the multiplier effect;
An increase in income increases the demand for consumer goods;
The increase in demand for consumer goods leads to the expansion of production in industries that produce these goods;
The increase in the production of consumer goods causes even greater demand for industrial goods;
The growing demand for capital, resource goods generates an increase in the production of these goods. At the same time, the peculiarity of the reproduction of fixed capital is that the costs of increasing new fixed capital exceed the cost of manufactured products. Thus, the sale of goods by textile enterprises can grow by 50%, and the production of technological equipment for these enterprises - by 500%.
The principle or effect of acceleration is a process that shows how an increase in sales and income causes an increase in investment. The acceleration coefficient (X) is calculated as the ratio of investment growth DJ (from Latin investice - to clothe) to income growth DR (from English revenue - income, revenue):
If the volume of sales of a textile enterprise increased by 3 million rubles, and the production of machines for it - by 30 million rubles, then the acceleration coefficient is 10. This coefficient shows how much each ruble of incremental income increased investments.
For Russia, the problem of investment demand, and thus the problem of employment, is not only relevant, but topical. The volume of investments in fixed capital in the Russian Federation is characterized by the following data, which are presented in the table.
Indices of the physical volume of investments in fixed capital in the Russian Federation (in comparable prices; in percent to the previous year)
Year Indicator Year Indicator
1992 60,3 2005 110,9
1994 75,7 2006 116,7
1996 81,9 2007 122,7
1998 88,6 2008 109,9
2000 117,4 2009 84,3
2002 102,8 2010 106,0
2004 113,7 2011 108,3
It can be seen from the table that in the 1990s, investment in productive potential set the country's development back beyond 1990. Industrial and agricultural enterprises were closed and destroyed. The labor force in the manufacturing sector of the economy was shrinking. The country was destroying its national wealth. In the period 2000-2011. investments in fixed capital have acquired a progressive, albeit uneven, character. In 2009, there was again a rapid decline in investment: in the first quarter - minus 16.3%, in the second - minus 21.7%, in the third - minus 20.9%, in the fourth - minus 14.7%. In general - minus 18.2% in relation to the corresponding period of the previous year. Investments in intellectual property objects amounted to only 0.5%, and the costs of research, development and technological work - 0.4% in the structure of investments in non-financial assets. This is three times lower than in developed countries. When scientists, teachers and doctors make good money in our country, we will be able to get an innovative economy, and not a country that exports
oil, girls and future Nobel Prize winners.
According to the fall in investment demand in Russia, the number of people employed in the economy is decreasing and the army of the unemployed is growing: in 2009, the economically active population amounted to 75,658 thousand people, of which 69,285 thousand people were employed in the economy, 6,373 thousand people were unemployed, tons .e. 9.2%. Investment growth in 2010 and 2011 caused a reduction in the number of unemployed to 5020 thousand people.
Thus, J.M. Keynes rightly links the unemployment rate with the level and dynamics of investment demand. His recommendation to the government is to increase investment demand in every possible way as an integral part of effective demand. During the crisis, he recommended spending more money than taxes collected, i.e. have a deficit budget.
The foregoing allows us to conclude that the problem of employment of labor resources is a macroeconomic problem, directly linked to the level and dynamics of investment demand in the country. Effective demand, according to Keynes, organically includes two types of demand:
The solvent need of the population for consumer goods;
Investment demand of entrepreneurs for means of production and labor.
As a result, effective demand generates an increase in the welfare of the population, an increase in employment and an increase in the income of entrepreneurs.
KEYINSIAN THEORY OF REGULATED MONEY
An ardent admirer of state regulation of the market economy J.M. Keynes quite logically put forward the concept of state regulation
money circulation. In this he saw the main means of combating inflation. His merit lay in the fact that he linked together four interconnected markets: goods, money, labor and the stock market. He made an attempt to link these four markets into a position of general market equilibrium. What causes the imbalance of these markets can be judged by the raw material orientation of the Russian market economy. Russia's highly monopolized raw material industries are recipients of monopoly income, natural resource rent, and export premiums generated by the speculative exchange rate of the ruble. These prices for primary natural resources are one source of rising prices for all other goods and services. Ultimately, unregulated market prices in Russia require unregulated money circulation and inevitably give rise to inflation that has been going on for more than two decades.
Keynes allowed a small and controlled inflation and at the same time warned society about the harmful effects of unregulated inflation and unregulated money circulation. In his work The Economic Consequences of the Treaty of Versailles, he wrote: “Lenin is undoubtedly right. There can be no more cunning, more certain means for overturning the foundation of society than a disorder in the circulation of money. The process directs all the latent forces of economic law towards destruction and does it in such a way that not one person in a million is able to find the root of evil. He believed that inflation is characteristic of "every weakest government, even if it can do nothing more."
Ask any Russian and make sure: hardly anyone will explain why
in Russia, the population has been receiving annually a “New Year's gift” in the form of rising prices for goods and services for more than 20 years. Everyone remembers well the shock increases in 1992 and 1998, and the price increase in 2012 was hardly an unusual economic postulate of the modern Russian economy. It is unlikely that anyone will explain where the root of evil is in Russian poverty, unemployment, inflation, huge differences in the standard of living of the rich and the poor.
KEYNS ON THE LIFE CONDITIONS OF HUMANITY IN 100 YEARS
In 1931, i.e. just over 80 years ago, J.M. Keynes gave a lecture and at the same time prepared an article in which he suggested what values would be in society in 100 years. This was all the more surprising since, in his 1923 Treatise on Monetary Reform, he made the gloomy suggestion that in the long run we are all dead. And here is a new turn of thought of the great economist.
In his prophetic will, he pointed out two reasons for slow economic growth: the lack of important technical innovations and the inability to accumulate capital. At the same time, he rightly believed that revolutionary technical changes should primarily affect production, i.e. industry, agriculture, construction and transport. He believed that in 100 years humanity would improve its economic situation by 4-8 times. And in this prediction, he was right.
However, there is another side to the problem - these are human needs, which can be insatiable. Keynes divides these needs into two classes: absolute, which are characteristic of all people, and relative, which
which elevate a person above other people and make them feel superior to others. These second needs are insatiable: the higher their level, the more intense they are. He warns: “Over the next 100 years, we will convince ourselves and those around us that white is black and black is white; because black is useful and white is not. Greed, usury and foresight will be our gods for some time to come.”
Nevertheless, the great economist taught us a lesson in optimism: “I am sure that with a little more experience, we will be able to use the newly acquired gift of nature more intelligently than today's rich people, and plan our lives in a completely different way than they do. For many centuries to come... to enjoy ourselves, each of us will have to work a little... But, in addition, we will have to spread bread on butter as thinly as possible so that the work that still needs to be done is distributed among the maximum number of people » .
Even utopian socialists would applaud these ideas - to work for self-complacency, and to receive benefits for everyone without exception. We, who live in Russia in an era of crisis and enormous income differentiation, can only guess what the welfare of mankind and Russia will be in another 100 years and what economic and spiritual opportunities our grandchildren will have. In the meantime, our contemporaries are trying to find an answer to the question: what would Keynes suggest to modern Russia? At the same time, many of them rightly believe that Keynes would have proposed a planned-market model of the economy based on state regulation.
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UDC 338.482:311
A.A. ANDREEVA
FORMATION OF A SYSTEM OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES IN TOURISM
The concept and features of innovative activity in tourism are revealed. The author describes the main systems of indicators of innovation activity, substantiates the need to create a system of indicators of innovation activity in tourism.
Key words: innovation, innovation activity, innovation in tourism, efficiency of innovation activity, indicators of innovation activity, index of innovation development.
The definition and features of innovation activity in tourism are considered in the present article. The author describes basic systems of innovation indicators and argues for a system of innovation indicators in tourism.
Key words: innovation, innovation activity, innovation in tourism, effectiveness of innovation activity, innovation indicators, index of innovative development.
The modern economy is unthinkable without innovation. The government of the Russian Federation has set a course for the modernization of almost all spheres of society, including the tourism economy. Modernization involves the transition to an innovative path of development in all areas of management.
“Innovation is the introduction of a new or significantly improved product (good, service), or process, a new method of sales, or a new organizational method in business practice, workplace organization or in external relations” .
An important feature of the innovation process is that it can be called a kind of "perpetual motion machine". The development of new territories, the extraction of minerals are end processes, in contrast to the processes of creating new products and services, developing and improving technologies, etc. Accordingly, the innovative path of development is the path of improvement
© Andreeva A.A., 2013
not only our present, but also the future for future generations.
The main criterion for innovation activity is its profitability, i.e. the meaning of innovation lies in obtaining benefits. The benefit may be an increase in profits, an increase in the competitiveness of a product or service, an increase in market share, etc. The process of introducing innovations is not an end in itself, but is a tool for progress.
According to the Strategy for Innovative Development of the Russian Federation until 2020, the following key unresolved problems that stand in the way of innovative development can be identified:
Insufficiency of budget financing;
Weak development of the public-private partnership system;
Lack of complete, reliable and timely statistical information;
Weak integration of the Russian Federation into the global processes of creation and use of innovations.